TrackFly's 2026 Spring Data Breakdown

If you want to know how the fly fishing specialty channel is really performing, not the vibes, not the anecdotes, the actual numbers, TrackFly's Scott Papich delivered the goods in a member presentation hosted by AFFTA this week. 

Here's what the data says.

The Size of The Pie

TrackFly estimates the fly fishing specialty channel at $450–$500 million in annual sell-through. Add in sporting goods chains, D2C, and other retail formats, and total fly fishing sell-through in the U.S. clears $1 billion annually. That's the market you're operating in.

2025 In Review: A Tale of Two Halves

The full-year headline, fly fishing specialty up 3.5% in dollar sales over 2024, with units up 2% and average selling prices up 1.5%, looks solid on paper, especially compared to a bike industry that was down 5% and a broader outdoor industry that barely cleared 1% growth. But the story behind those numbers matters.

The year started slowly. From January through April 2025, the channel was down single digits versus the prior year. Anglers kept buying consumables, flies, tippet, and indicators, but held off on discretionary purchases like rods, reels, waders, and watercraft. The year was ultimately rescued by a strong Q4, driven by two factors: tariff-driven price increases that took effect in October, and a wave of notable rod closeouts that pulled hesitant buyers off the sidelines. Those closeout shoppers don't just buy the discounted rod; they also spend in other categories. Q4 dollar sales ran 6–10% above the prior year each month, saving the year.

The important caveat Papich was careful to make: tariff-driven inflation isn't the same as real demand-driven growth. Anglers aren't buying more; they're paying more. That costs everyone along the supply chain and doesn't do nearly as much for bottom lines as genuine volume growth would.

2026 Year-To-Date: Up 11%, But Read the Fine Print

Through the first four months of 2026, specialty channel dollar sales are up 11% year over year. Units are up 3%. Average selling prices are up 8%.

That 8% price increase is doing most of the heavy lifting, and it's a direct result of tariff-driven cost increases continuing to flow through. Flies, rods, reels, and waders, four of the largest categories, are all up double digits in dollar sales. Fishing accessories, though only 5% of the total mix, are also up 12% and have been one of the most consistently growing categories for the past two years.

The other factor driving the early-year surge is geography and weather: an unusually warm, dry winter and spring across the West significantly accelerated the season. Western shops are tracking markedly higher than last year in dollar sales through April; eastern shops are tracking close to last year's pace. Papich's caution here is worth noting: if precipitation doesn't recover in the West through May and June, the seasonal sales peak may simply arrive earlier in the year rather than representing net new volume. Don't mistake a front-loaded curve for a bigger curve.

The Flies Category Deserves Its Own Moment

Flies have become the highest-dollar-selling category at the height of the season, surpassing soft goods at peak. The only reason flies don't top the annual chart is that they don't sell through the holidays. With consumables driving consistent foot traffic into shops even during periods of economic uncertainty, a strong flies category is good news for everyone in the channel, not just flies brands.

Waders: Watch This Space

Of all categories, waders are seeing average selling prices rise the fastest. Brands with higher ASPs are taking market share, and newer entrants with premium price tags are pulling the category average upward. The $1,000 wader is real, and consumers, particularly when incentivized by closeout pricing elsewhere, could be willing to stretch for perceived value.

What's On the Horizon

The outlook carries some genuine uncertainty. Tariff impacts on landed costs are ongoing, and rising fuel surcharges tied to Middle East instability represent a potential second wave of cost pressure. If oil climbs significantly and brands face another round of price increases, the industry will find out just how elastic consumer demand really is. Consumer confidence, already tested in the middle of 2025, bears watching.

About TrackFly

TrackFly currently aggregates sell-through data from 170 specialty fly shops, representing an estimated 25–30% of all U.S. fly shops, a higher sample rate than most research verticals in the outdoor industry. Enrollment is free for retailers, takes roughly two minutes to set up, requires no technical resources, and gives shops access to their own business reporting tools alongside broader industry benchmarks. TrackFly expects to surpass 200 participating retailers within the next 60 days.

The full report, including brand and style breakdowns by category, is available to AFFTA and TrackFly members. To connect with the TrackFly team or access member resources, visit your AFFTA member portal. And for more conversations like this one, join us at AFFTA Confluence this November in Salt Lake City. Free for retailers this year.