The Numbers Improved. The Fundamentals Didn’t.

For brands and retailers paying attention, the signal in the just-released Trackfly 2025 year-end report isn’t a celebration; it’s caution with intent. A +3.5% year after a shaky first half masks just how uneven the recovery was. Q4 didn’t fix structural issues; it papered over them with delayed purchases, tariff-driven price increases, and a narrow slice of consumers buoyed by strong equity markets.

That matters for how we plan 2026.

Higher average selling prices aren’t a strategy; they’re a condition. Tariffs and input costs have already done the easy work. What’s left is execution: tighter assortments, fewer speculative buys, and far better communication between brands and shops. The retailers that grew last year weren’t chasing everything; they stayed in stock on core products and avoided letting cash get trapped in long-tail SKUs.

The fly category is the clearest tell. Strong unit growth says anglers are still fishing, even when sentiment is soft. That should push brands away from novelty cycles and toward reliability: flies, lines, leaders, waders, boots, the things people actually need when they show up. If you stock anglers, not algorithms, you’re still in the game.

The uncomfortable truth is this: the traditional wholesale playbook is out of date. Inventory risk has shifted downstream for too long, and brands that acknowledge this and plan collaboratively rather than transactionally will be the ones still standing if consumer demand wobbles again.

2026 won’t reward optimism. It will reward discipline, data, and restraint. The trade doesn’t need more hype; it needs fewer surprises and better conversations.

HERE'S THE DATA

December sell-through in fly fishing specialty was up +8% over prior December, capping Q4 with $-sales growth that almost disguises what a challenging year it felt like for many in the industry. In fact, Q4 sales were strong enough to finally bring 2025 sales up over 2024 sales, and to finish up +3.5% versus the prior year.

To quickly summarize 2025: the first 4 months were down from the prior year, tracking closely with overall economic indicators across the broader consumer-driven economy. 

Then from May through September, sell-through strengthened to single-digit growth over the prior year. Some economic indicators stabilized during the summer, as talk of tariff wars evolved into “tariff agreements.” Consumer sentiment remained low compared to historical averages, but equity market valuations were returning to historic highs, and many people’s 401k accounts had climbed into record territory.

And during Q4, those higher equity markets likely encouraged some subset of anglers to buy equipment they had been eyeballing all season. In addition, some product prices began to increase, at least partially and in some cases entirely, due to tariffs, according to numerous brands. Not every brand raised prices, and not in every category, but a substantial portion did across many categories. 

Two factors explicitly influenced Q4 growth in 2024. Overall, anglers were (a) buying more units, perhaps catching up from lower unit-sales through the prior 9 months, and they (b) paid slightly higher average prices across a number of categories. 

We can expect higher ASP’s (Average Selling Price) to remain a factor through 2026 (versus comparable months of 2025).  

One other note regarding 2025 full-year sell-through: the Flies category sold very well all year, up 7% over 2024. Some of that growth reflected higher ASP’s; but units were up too, indicating that people were getting on the water. FLIES is now the second largest $-sales category in the channel (behind only Softgoods). It’s often said, “When the economy goes bad, or it goes good, people go fishing.” And that should be encouraging to anyone in this business, no matter what category you specialize in.

To recap: Q4 specialty sell-through was strong enough to turn what started as an “off” season into a year of +3.5% growth over 2024. But not every brand, nor every fly shop, is feeling that growth. The brands and retailers that communicated effectively, efficiently, and frequently were best positioned to grow in 2025 and will likely be again in 2026.

We want to emphasize the value of building on the brand-dealer relationship. Dealers shouldn’t ever have to stock out of brands’ most core, high-volume products. When both brands and retailers connect through TrackFly Sales Insights, they can avoid costly stockouts.

As always, TrackFly is here for you, analyzing real POS data in every category every month, and digging into the backstories behind the numbers. TrackFly is now building custom analytics designed to answer your specific questions about angler/consumer behavior across all major categories.